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cc001
Lisker
Posts: 103
Joined: Sat Mar 12, 2016 12:48 pm

Decentralized Prediction Market - Wisdom of the Crowd

Sat Mar 12, 2016 1:29 pm

Research has shown that the more people predict an outcome of an event, the more accurate this prediction is.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd

This Dapp would allow the following three main tasks:
* create an event or a market. Exaple: "Who will win the election for president? Trump or Hillary or someone else?
* People can predict the outcome by betting on one of the possible options. If they are right, they will win, else the'll lose their stake.
* So called reporters need to report the correct outcome after the event. Based on these reports, the losers and winners are declared.
* Finally, the result of those markets can be used as very accurate predictions, that are not possible till now.

This means that there are three main roles in this prediction market:
* Market creator (anybody could do this)
* Better/Player/Prophet (anybody who is willing to risk some money by betting on an outcome)
* Reporter (want to earn fees by reporting correctly after an event has happened)

The most important point is, that reporters report honest. Therefore they must lose a stake if they report dishonest. To have an incentive to be a reporter, they earn parts of the fees that are payed by the Betters/Players. The stake they need to put in could be a own Cryptocurreny on the LISK chain. These tokens could be sold in a IPO and could be traded on regular markets afterwards. The bigger this whole prediction market dapp thing is, the more value have those report tokens.

The DApp could be used online, on a desktop computer or even on the mobilephone. Reporters and Players get notified if there is a new market to bet or report on.

The more people use the dapp (more betters/players), the more fees are generated, the more earn the reporters, the more value has the Token that is needed to report.
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LitcoinCollector
Lisker
Posts: 19
Joined: Tue May 17, 2016 8:11 am

Re: Decentralized Prediction Market - Wisdom of the Crowd

Mon Dec 05, 2016 9:36 am

Hi cc001,
Great idea, I was thinking of create the same kind of Dapp. Check out my proposal: viewtopic.php?f=8&t=53
Maybe we can work together on this, I send you a pm.
If other Liskers are also intersted let me know!
Thanks,
lc

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